Most futurists compile data, create
projections, plot trajectories and draw straight lines between the
present and the future. But the world is not a graph of perfect squares
and limited categories. Professional futurists can make an impression
as long as you don't think about their track records. However, you can
improve your ability to accurately forecast trends and predict
breakthroughs by avoiding some simple mistakes and being willing to
test even proven ideas and your own favorite theories. Learn how to
avoid the "true believer" trap, what questions to ask when offered
evidence that something is true, how to build a personal think tank,
and how to apply these ideas to your work as a researcher.

Pat Wagner and her husband, Leif Smith, run
Pattern Research, Inc., a research, consulting, and training business
in Denver. They have specialized in supporting the work of innovators
in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors for 35 years. Clients
include inventors, venture capitalists, artists, writers, think tank
directors, scientists, entrepreneurs, journalists, software engineers,
nonprofit executives, philanthropists, educators, and, of course,
librarians. Pat is a management consultant and trainer; she is a
frequent speaker at national and state library conferences and has
worked with library staff throughout North America. She is also an
author and frequent contributor to books and journals regarding
libraries.